Does Political Ideology Shape Trust in the Police and Military in Sweden?
An Analysis of the correalation between political ideology and trust in Security Institutions. Based on a local survey
Does Political Ideology Shape Trust in the Police and Military in Sweden?An Analysis of the correlation between political ideology and trust in Security Institutions.Based on a local survey.By:Karin LarssonAgnes SvenssonFU203VT 20251IntroductionLegitimacy and trust are essential to building peaceful and inclusive societies. Trust in security institutions, such as the military and police, can determine whether people accept state authority as legitimate, which is vital for enforcing laws and delivering justice peacefully. In Peace and Development Studies, the relationship between a government and its citizens is considered highly important. One key influence on this relationship is political ideology, which shapes how individuals perceive and trust governmental institutions (Perry, 2021).Political ideology is widely recognised as a significant factor in shaping perceptions of authority. In polarised societies, this becomes more prominent. Research shows that conservative individuals tend to support institutions like the police and military, viewing them as central to maintaining order. In contrast, progressive individuals often express lower trust, citing concerns about excessive force, discrimination, and lack of accountability (Navarro & Hansen, 2023) (Gerber & Jackson, 2016)However, these patterns are not universal. National context, institutional culture, and levels of political polarisation affect how ideology shapes trust. (Andersson, 2024). Sweden offers a unique context. Despite rising political polarisation, it remains comparatively stable and is generally known for its high level of public trust in institutions (Martinsson, n.d.) (Oscarsson, et al., 2021). This raises an important question: Does political ideology play a significant role in shaping trust in security institutions in Sweden, or are there other social and cultural factors more influential? (OECD, 2024)The relevance of this question is particularly given the recent development. With the current situation in the world, political instability, the recent joining of NATO, the rise of gang criminality and war, etc, the role and reliability of these institutions have become more central topics in political discourse. The political polarisation of the Swedish parties has been divided between more left-wing parties and right-wing parties. Historically, there has been polarisation between Swedes regarding their political opinion for a long period. In recent years, there have been factors such as multiculturalism, identity, migration, and globalisation that have split up the two opposites (Oscarsson, et al., 2021)An OECD report from 2024 shows Swedes express relatively high trust in security institutions compared to other European countries, though trust in the police declined slightly between 2021 and 2023. This may reflect growing political tensions or concerns over crime and public safetyMeanwhile, Sweden has reintroduced compulsory military service to strengthen national defence. Previously relying on an all-volunteer force, the military had become distanced from society. The shift to conscription, closely tied to politics, aims to rebuild public engagement.Trust in the military now depends on confidence in political leadership and national defence efforts (Malmström & Berndtsson, 2025).As Swedish politicians debate around militarisation, law enforcement and national defence.Individuals' political ideologies may influence how much confidence they place in these institutions. Sweden’s historically high but recently shifting levels of institutional trust provide a valuable setting for examining whether political ideology influences trust in the police and military (Malmström & Berndtsson, 2025).2The Research QuestionThis paper explores the relationship between political ideology and trust in Sweden’s security institutions, based on data from a public survey. Respondents were asked to rate their trust in the police and military on a Likert scale from one (no trust) to seven (complete trust), and also to place themselves ideologically on a scale from one (far left) to ten (far right)The central research question is:Does political ideology influence trust in the security institutions (police and military) in Sweden?The hypothesis is that individuals with conservative (right-wing) views are more likely to express higher trust in these institutions. Conservative thinking often values national defence, stability and traditional values. while more progressive thinking often raises concerns about institutional bias or racial profiling (Andersson, 2024, p. 35).MethodologyTo investigate this question, a quantitative methodology is going to be used, drawing on data from a human security survey, provided by the Department of Peace and Development at Linnaeus University of Sweden, using a bivariate analysis, and SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) for description of data. To help discuss the research question, literature from relevant studies is going to be provided, for example, an article from the Scandinavian Journal of Military Srudies.The outline of the paper will follow three sections:Firstly, a description of the data. This section will present how the survey was designed, what types of questions and the use of the Likert Scale. It will also cover the response rate and introduce this paper key concepts.Secondly, an analysis of the data. This section will provide the data from the surveys and a bivariate analysis.Lastly, a discussion and interpretation of the data. This section will cover the findings from the previous section, show any unexpected results and methodological reflections. This section will also analyze the findings from the survey and compare them to already written literature.This will be followed by a conclusion, summarizing the findings and discussing future research questions in the same field.Description of the DataThe data used in this study is drawn from the Human Security Survey, conducted in 2025 via Google Forms by first-year students of the Peace and Development programme. The survey consisted of ten sections with varied questions regarding Human Security. The questions included in the survey range from gender and political ideology to economic situation and more.The answer sheet predominantly employs the Likert scale, with a few exceptions, such as a question about the respondent's residence or a political question that uses a ten-point scale instead of seven. For this paper, Section 2, General attitudes and beliefs, is being utilised.3The questionnaire was distributed online through personal networks, including relatives and acquaintances. Since the class comprises students from various countries, the range of responses included both Swedish and international. However, to refine the analysis, this paper will focus solely on data from Swedish participants.A total of 496 individuals completed the survey, of which 259 respondents were identified as being from Sweden.Political ideology was quantified using a self-placement scale measuring between 1 to 10, where 1 represents the far left and 10 represents the far right. This method is widely used in political science to allow respondents to locate themselves ideologically without having to adhere to party-specific labels. While it offers a straightforward way to indicate general political orientation, it does not capture dimensions such as authoritarianism or libertarianism, and it may oversimplify complex political beliefs. (Kroh, 2007, pp. 4-5)Trust in the police and the military was measured using a 7-point Likert scale, with 1 being no trust at all and 7 being complete trust. This scale allows a graded response, which offers more nuance than binary trust/distrust measures. Likert-format questions are commonly used in trustrelated research and have been found to be both reliable and easy for respondents to understand (Bryman, 2012, p. 166).While the measurement instruments used in the survey are consistent with standard practices in social science research, limitations of the analysis may occur. This is due to the survey being self-reported; people can easily lie or choose not to answer at all, which can make the survey biased.The question about political stands can also be confusing since ideological labels may vary in meaning across regions. Moreover, political ideology as a single-dimensional left-right scale may not capture the full complexity of political attitudes in Sweden, where cultural and institutional trust often intersect with non-traditional ideological alignments (Elgenius & Wennerhag, n.d., p. 139).4Descriptive Analysis of the DataThis section presents descriptive statistics for the study’s three main key variables: political ideology, trust in the police, and trust in the military. Understanding these key variables is essential for analysing the correlation between political orientation and trust in security institutions, as the study’s research question is.Political IdeologyThe respondents were asked to place themselves on a scale from 1 (far left) to 10 (far right) to indicate their political ideology. With the help of the Distribution Frequencies table on SPSS, we can see how the respondents have answered. This variable helps capture the ideological selfidentification along a traditional left-right spectrum.The distribution of political ideology in this survey appears to be slightly left leaning. Many respondents, approximately 59,9%, have chosen to identify between 3 and 5 on the scale. Very few people identified with the extreme ends of the spectrum. However, more people have chosen to identify with the extreme left than with the extreme right. This suggests that most respondents place themselves closer to the ideological centre.5Trust in PoliceThe respondents rated their trust in the police on a 7-point Likert scale, where 1 = no trust at all and 7 = complete trust.Trust in the police varied among the respondents. The distribution of responses reveals somewhat low to moderate levels of trust in the police among the respondents. The most frequently occurring response was 3, accounting for 27,4% of the total sample. Trust ratings across the other scale points were relatively evenly spread, with around 10-15% for the remaining points. Similarly, the extremes of no trust at all (1) versus complete trust (7) are not as prevalent as the others.This suggests that while a small number of respondents express strong opinions, the majority are situated in the lower middle of the scale, indicating a more questionable level of trust towards the police.6Trust in the MilitaryAs in the previous table, the respondents rated their trust on a 7-point Likert scale in the same way, meaning 1 equals no trust at all and 7 equals’ complete trust.Compared to the trust in the police table, the trust in the military reveals similar trends. The most common response was number 3, selected by approximately 30% of respondents. The remaining numbers were more evenly distributed across the scale, with most points receiving between 13% and 17% of the respondents. Like the trust in the police, the extreme scores (1 and 7) were less frequently chosen.The trust in the police table shows a more equal distribution between the answers, whereas the trust in the military table shows a larger percentage who chose number three. Both tables show relatively low trust in any of the institutions.Bivariate analysisSince the political ideology was originally measured on a 10-point scale, responses were grouped into three broader categories to allow for clearer comparison with the other variables.Scores from 1 to 4 were classified as left-leaning, 5 to 6 as center, and 7 to 10 as right-leaning.This categorisation showed a more manageable way to analyse the trends across ideological groups.To do the bivariate analysis, we are also going to look at Pearson’s r as well as Spearman’s rho, to investigate whether a correlation between the variables can be found. Both Pearson and Spearman use a scale from –1 to 1, where 0 is no correlation and the closer to either 1 or –1 indicates the stronger the correlation, either negative or positive (Bryman, 2012, pp. 341-344).7Table A – The Symmetric Measures for the trust in the Military correlates with the political ideology.Here, a Pearson’s r correlation and Spearman’s rho coefficient have been calculated.Bar chart A– Illustrates the distribution of trust in the military across political orientation groups (left, center, and right)To explore whether political beliefs affect the level of trust people have in the military, both Pearson’s correlation and Spearman’s rho have been calculated. As shown in Table A, Pearson’s r was 0,120 and Spearman’s rho was 0,107, indicating a weak correlation between political trust and the military. Furthermore, it suggests a weak but positive correlation, meaning that as political views lean more towards the right, trust in the military tends to increase slightly.However, this correlation is too low to be considered significant.To help visualise this trend, Bar Chart A is used to show how the trust levels vary across the three political groups: left, center and right. While responses are spread out across all levels, the chart still reveals some patterns that align with the correlation results.With the help of Bar Chart A, right-leaning individuals are more likely to select higher trust levels compared to left-leaning respondents. Notably, none of the right-leaning participants8selected level 1 (no trust at all) while around 4% of left-leaning participants did. The left and center groups show a concentration around level 3, suggesting a more generally cautious or national view toward the military.Although the correlation is extremely small, the pattern is still consistent, showing a slight trend in conservative thinking, trusting the military more. However, the correlation is still not as strong as we hoped for, and the relationship between political ideology and trust in the military is considered to be very weak.Bar chart B - Illustrates the distribution of trust in the police across political orientation groups (left, center, and right)Table B - The Symmetric Measures for the trust in the Police correlates with the political ideology. Here, a Pearson’s r correlation and a Spearman’s rho coefficient has been calculated.9Bar chart B illustrates how levels of trust in the police vary across political orientation groups among Swedish respondents. These groups have been divided into left, center, and right and their respective trust is measured on a scale from 1 (no trust at all) to 7 (complete trust).What we can see from a first look at bar chart B is that, across all groups, the most common trust ratings fall in the middle of the scale at levels 3 and 4. However, we can also see some patterns between ideological groups. The left-leaning respondents display a more critical stance toward the police, with eminent peaks at levels 2 and 3. Trust gradually declines as the scores increase, with relatively few respondents reporting high trust at levels 6 and 7. The centrealigned respondents show a more balanced distribution, although the highest concentration remains noticeable at level 3, followed by 4 and 6. This group is more evenly spread across the trust scale; however, trust levels remain relatively modest. Right-leaning respondents demonstrate a more polarised distribution. While a notable number report low trust, especially at level 3, this group also shows the highest concentration of high trust scores, particularly at level 6. This suggests that right-leaning respondents place stronger confidence in the police compared to other groups.These visual patterns in bar chart B suggest that political ideology may influence levels of trust in the police, with left-leaning individuals generally less trusting and right-leaning respondents somewhat more likely to express trust.However, to test the relationship statistically, we used both Pearson’s r and Spearman’s rank correlation, as you can see in Table B. Pearson’s r is 0,141 and Spearman’s rho coefficient is 0,150. Both results indicate a weak positive correlation between political ideology and trust in the police, however, neither result is statistically significant, and the correlation coefficients show only weak relationships.Discussion / Interpretation of the FindingsKey patternsLooking at these two chart tables, there are a few things they have in common. There are a few clear patterns. Most notably, the people who tend to lean more right did show a higher trust in both the police and the military. This compares to the left-leaning respondents, who generally chose the lower trust scores for both institutions. As stated before, there is a weak but consistent pattern between political ideology and trust in security institutions.The center group often displayed a more balanced and moderate trust toward both institutions.In some cases, their trust scores were even higher than those on the left, especially in the cases regarding the police. This can be interpreted as the center is neither overly critical nor unconditionally supportive.Overall, while the Pearson’s correlation and Spearman rho values were weak, the direction of the relationships was consistent. Right-leaning individuals tend to report slightly more trust, which does support the hypothesis that conservatives do trust more in security institutions, especially in the military.10Unexpected resultsEven though there is a slight correlation, one of the most unexpected results from the analysis was the weakness of the correlation coefficients. Both Pearson’s r and Spearman’s rho fell short of statistical significance, which means that even though the pattern did exist, it is not strong enough to conclude from this survey.Another unexpected result was the relatively low trust levels across all groups. Since the hypothesis was that right-leaning individuals would show more trust in these institutions, it did not show as dramatically as we thought it would. This may suggest that there are other factors beyond political ideology that could influence people’s perceptions of security institutions.A third thing is that the center group did, in some cases, have higher levels of trust than both left- and right-leaning groups, suggesting that political views do not always line up in a simple left-to-right pattern. These findings can indicate that trust is shaped by more than just political orientation, it can be influenced by other things, such as education, personal experiences or social media.Methodological reflectionsWhen interpreting these results, several methodological limitations require consideration.Firstly, respondents' political orientation was categorised into three broad groups: left, centre, and right. This simplification may overlook important aspects of political identity, particularly in a country like Sweden, where ideological differences within these broad categories can be quite significant.Secondly, social desirability bias may have influenced how people answered the questions. This refers to the tendency of survey respondents answering questions in a way that will be viewed favourably by others, even if their answers do not reflect their real opinion. This may have especially influenced the answers on sensitive topics such as trust in the police or military.Thirdly, there comes some challenges with the use of Likert scale questions, such as different interpretations of the same number. Some people also tend to avoid extreme options, such as 1 and 7, while others feel more comfortable using them.In addition, the analysis does not control for other variables that could have a big impact on trust, such as age, gender, or education level. Including these could broaden the interaction of trust, political ideology, and other social factors, with a multivariate analysis.Furthermore, a vulnerability of the analysis is that as it relies on cross-sectional data, it does not assess whether the trust levels are changing over time, nor can it measure how political events might influence trust.Theoretical interpretation:The findings of this paper can be illustrated through key concepts in Peace and Development studies, especially those related to state legitimacy, public trust and the role of security institutions in Sweden. As mentioned in the introduction, trust in institutions such as the police and the military is often considered important for legitimate governance. Showing trust in security institutions will most likely bring a more accepted state authority, which in that case will lead to more cooperation with the law. This is, in the end, necessary for maintaining social cohesion and sustainable peace (Malmström & Berndtsson, 2025, p. 8).11The results from the analysis tended to show a slight chance that right-winged individuals expressed a higher level of trust in the military and the police, which did align with the theoretical frameworks that link conservative ideologies to valuing national security more. This can be because of how conservative thinkers see security institutions as protectors of the national identity (Andersson, 2024, p. 43).The left-leaning or more progressive individuals may approach the security institutions with more scepticism. They may prioritise values like equality and transparency. This interpretation fits within broader liberal and critical peacebuilding frameworks. These frameworks emphasise the importance of inclusive, accountable institutions that ensure equitable security (Oscarsson, et al., 2021).As Sweden continues to undergo political, social, and security shifts, such as NATO membership, understanding these dynamics will be important for maintaining an inclusive state-citizen relationship.Connection to literatureThe findings in this study generally support existing research on ideology and institutional trust, even though the observed correlations were weak. Studies by Gerber and Jackson, as well as Navarro and Hansen, have shown that right-leaning individuals tend to express more trust in the police and military, while left-leaning individuals are more sceptical (Gerber and Jackson, 2016.pp.9) (Navarro and Hansen, 2023.pp.733-735) .When it comes to the context of Sweden, researchers like Oscarsson have noted that Sweden has traditionally had high levels of institutional trust. However, recent social and political changes, such as debates over policing, immigration, and national security, have started to shift the attitudes of the public while also making trust more ideologically polarized (SNS, 2021).ConclusionThis paper set out to explore whether political ideology influences trust in Sweden’s security institutions, specifically the police and military. Drawing on data from a Human Security Survey and supported by existing literature, the analysis found weak but consistent correlations.Individuals who identify as right-leaning tend to express slightly higher trust in both the police and the military compared to those on the left. However, these correlations were statistically weak and cannot be considered strong indicators of causation.The findings suggest that while political ideology plays some role in shaping attitudes toward security institutions in Sweden, it is not the only or even the most dominant factor. Sweden’s political culture, relatively high baseline of institutional trust, and recent socio-political changes, such as increased militarisation and concerns over crime, likely interact with ideology in complex ways. The relatively modest differences in trust across ideological groups may reflect Sweden's historically stable institutions and low levels of political polarisation compared to other countries.12Several limitations must be acknowledged. The use of simplified left-right ideological scale might overlook important dimensions of political identity, such as attitudes toward authority, multiculturalism, or civil liberties. Additionally, the self-reported nature of the survey and its sampling through personal networks could introduce biases that affect the generalisability of the results.Future research could benefit from a more nuanced ideological framework and a broader, more representative sample. It would also be valuable to examine other influencing factors, such as media exposure, personal experience with institutions, or demographic characteristics that may interact with political ideology to shape public trust.In conclusion, while political ideology does have some influence on trust in Sweden’s security institutions, the relationship is weak, suggesting that trust is shaped by a broader set of cultural, social, and political factors. This highlights the importance of maintaining transparency, accountability, and inclusiveness in public institutions to preserve trust across the ideological spectrum, especially in times of rising political tension and institutional change.13Bibliography Andersson, E., 2024. Trust in Public Institutions Across Europe. s.l.:Linneaus University.https://lnu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2%3A1927629/FULLTEXT01.pdfBryman, A., 2012. Social research Methods. 4 ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Elgenius, G. & Wennerhag, M., n.d. 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